World Cup 2026: favourites to win and why
It doesn’t get much bigger than this: the top four ranked teams in the world are the last four standing, and it’s the first time in World Cup history that’s happened. Here’s who the bookmakers fancy heading into the semi-finals, and how each side got here.
The final four
France remain favourites heading into the last four, and at 6/4 with Bet365 they’re still the shortest price of the four sides left. A comfortable 2-0 win over Morocco in the quarters kept their run intact, and they now face Spain in Dallas on Tuesday 14 July for a place in Sunday’s final.
Spain edged Belgium 2-1 in the quarters, with substitute Mikel Merino once again the difference-maker off the bench. At 10/3 with Bet365 they’re level-priced with England for second favourites, and stand between France and a place in the final.
The reigning champions needed extra time to see off 10-man Switzerland 3-1, Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez both on the scoresheet. Priced at 7/2 with Bet365, they’re the outsiders of the remaining four, but a battle-hardened squad chasing back-to-back titles is never one to write off.
England needed extra time themselves to get past Norway 2-1, Jude Bellingham scoring both goals. Priced at 10/3 with Bet365 — level with Spain — they face Argentina in Atlanta on Wednesday 15 July, with a first World Cup final since 1966 within reach.
How we got here
Every side we tipped as a potential dark horse fell at the quarter-final stage. Norway pushed England all the way to extra time before Bellingham’s second goal settled it. Morocco, semi-finalists in 2022, were beaten comfortably by France. Belgium lost a tight game to Spain, and Switzerland were reduced to 10 men before Argentina eventually won it in extra time. It’s a reminder of how thin the margins get this deep into a tournament — and why the top four ranked teams in the world making the last four is being called one of the strongest semi-final line-ups the competition has ever had.
For kick-off times and which channel each semi-final is on, see our full semi-final TV guide.
The betting angle
With just two matches left before the final, the outright market has narrowed right down to these four teams. The book stays open through both semi-finals and closes at 20:00 on 19 July — kick-off for the final itself — so there’s still time to react once we know who’s actually playing in it.
Watch every knockout match on the Watchsport app
Open Watchsport →Odds correct at time of publication (11:08, 12th July 2026) and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. visit BeGambleAware.org for free support and advice. 18+ only.